Analysis of the most popular domestic phenol aceto

2022-07-30
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Analysis of domestic phenol and acetone markets

I. Analysis of world market supply and demand

phenol. In 2005, the world's phenol production capacity reached 9.044 million tons per year, and the apparent consumption reached 8.139 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% and 7.17% respectively. The development of production and demand was relatively balanced. Among them, Asia has the fastest development rate, higher than the overall development rate of the world. North America, Western Europe and Asia are the main phenol production and consumption regions, accounting for more than 90% of the world's total production capacity and more than 80% of the world's consumption. The United States is the world's largest phenol producer and consumer, followed by Japan. North America, Western Europe, central and Eastern Europe and Africa have excess capacity, and other regions are in a state of insufficient supply and demand

acetone. In 2005, the world acetone production capacity reached 5.995 million tons per year, and the apparent consumption was 5.276 million tons, an increase of 6.6% and 6.7% respectively year on year. The world acetone production capacity is mainly concentrated in North America, Western Europe and Asia, accounting for 89.4% of the world's total production capacity, including 32.4% in North America, 30% in Western Europe and 27% in Asia. The largest acetone consumption in the world is in Western Europe, accounting for about 31% of the world's total consumption, followed by Asia and North America, each accounting for about 30%

the world's phenol/acetone capacity expansion has been active in recent years. According to experts, 630000 tons/year of phenol production capacity and 379000 tons/year of acetone production capacity will be added from 2006 to 2008

II. Domestic market supply and demand analysis

1. Production and demand statistics

phenol. In 2005, China's phenol output was 443300 tons (see Table 1). Two new/expanded units in Shanghai Gaoqiao and Bluestar Harbin were officially put into operation in the second quarter and the fourth quarter respectively, which greatly improved the supply capacity of the phenol Market. Although the phenol/Acetone Unit of PetroChina Jihua was shut down in mid November due to the explosion of the benzene plant, the national phenol output still increased by nearly 20% that year. Since 1990, the apparent consumption of phenol in China has risen to a higher level in about 5 years. After 2000, the demand growth has accelerated, reaching a higher level every two years. The apparent consumption in 2005 increased by 12.84% compared with that in 2004

Table 1 supply and demand of phenol/acetone in China in 2005 (tons)

product

year

output

import

export

apparent consumption

self sufficiency rate/%

phenol

2004

369786

281242

0.16

651028

56.8

2005

443300

291330

0.12

734630

60.3

yoy/%

19.88

3.58

-0.25

12.84

3.5

acetone

2004

225057

254257

0 05

479314

46.9

2005

270502

337398

0.037

607900

44.5

year on year/%

20.2

32.7

-0.26

26.8

-2.4

acetone. In recent years, China's acetone consumption has increased rapidly. In 2005, the apparent consumption reached 608000 tons, an increase of 26.8% over 2004. However, the output growth rate was lower than the demand growth rate, resulting in the rapid growth of import volume and the continued decline of self-sufficiency rate

2. Import and export volume and market supply changes

phenol. According to the customs statistics, the total domestic phenol import in 2005 was 291300 tons, an increase of about 10000 tons compared with 2004, and the import dependence was about 40%. According to the statistics of import countries/regions, the largest source of import volume in each region is Europe, followed by Asia and the United States. The top 7 countries and regions in terms of import volume are shown in Table 2. At the beginning of 2005, the opening market of domestic phenol market was not ideal, but since late January, the price has been rising for nearly one and a half months. In the first three months, the average monthly import volume of domestic phenol was about 21000 tons. Stimulated by the rising market, it soared to more than 40000 tons in April. At this time, the new phenol plant in Caojing was officially put into operation, and the market supply increased sharply, resulting in a big decline in the market price in January, and the monthly import volume was reduced to less than 20000 tons. In the second half of the year, the fluctuation amplitude of the domestic phenol market price was significantly weakened, and the total import volume increased slightly compared with the first half of the year. In September, the ocean arrivals were large, and the monthly import volume again exceeded 30000 tons. In the middle of November, after the phenol/Acetone Unit of Jihua was shut down due to abnormal factors, the monthly import volume in the two months at the end of the year increased to 25000 tons

Table 2 ranking of China's phenol import sources in 2005 (tons)

ranking

countries/regions

quantity

ranking

countries/regions

quantity

1

Taiwan, China

111522.26

5

Germany

23322.50

2

Spain

31443.95

6

Belgium

20441.99

3

United States

29778.17

7

South Korea

19103.54

4

Japan

26376.24

acetone. In 2005, China imported 337400 tons of acetone, an increase of 83000 tons compared with 2004, accounting for 55.5% of the domestic apparent consumption. According to the statistics of import countries, the largest source of import volume in each region is Asia, followed by Europe and the United States (see Table 3). In 2005, the domestic acetone import volume reached a new high in a single month. In August, the import volume reached 37700 tons, while in April, October, November and December, the import volume also exceeded 30000 tons, all of which were the high limit of single month import in the past two years. The increase of import volume broke the situation that the domestic market price remained sideways. The market price began to decline in April until the end of the year

Table 3 ranking of China's acetone import sources in 2005 (tons)

ranking

countries/regions

quantity

ranking

countries/regions

quantity

1

Taiwan, China

95327.73

5

Russia

39026.70

2

Japan

55664.62

6

Singapore

23223.17

3

United States

48371.26

7

Belgium

14795.94

4

South Korea

46223.86

III Consumption characteristics of domestic market

1, consumption changes

phenol. China's downstream demand for phenol is mainly concentrated in the fields of bisphenol A, phenolic resin, bakelite powder, etc. In recent years, there has been a certain decline in the traditional consumption field. On the one hand, the high price of raw materials has caused insufficient downstream operation, or the use of substitutes has lost part of the demand; On the other hand, it is affected by environmental and policy factors such as power rationing in summer, environmental protection and transportation restrictions. However, the overall trend is that the domestic phenol market demand maintains a high-speed growth

acetone. China's downstream demand for acetone is mainly concentrated in traditional fields such as bisphenol A, solvent, MMA and medicine. In recent years, the demand has maintained growth in most cases. Experts said that on the one hand, the market capacity is increasing due to the increase of domestic production capacity and import volume; On the other hand, China's bisphenol A, MMA, PC and other industries will have many new projects, and the demand field still has new growth points

2. Trends in key fields

in 2005, China's national economy maintained rapid growth. The domestic apparent consumption of phenol was 735000 tons and acetone was 60 tons. No one knows the experimental machine better than us 80000 tons, all exceeding the expectations at the beginning of the year

phenol. The demand situation of phenol Market in 2006 was not optimistic. Firstly, the continuous high price of phenol products made some industry substitutes widely used. Secondly, the national investment in fixed assets decreased significantly this year, which was unfavorable to the downstream phenol industry closely related to the building materials industry. In addition, environmental protection requirements also limited the demand of some dye industries. Generally speaking, the growth point of market demand in 2006 was mainly in the traditional resin industry. Phenol used in the production of friction materials and refractories will gradually become a new demand highlight. It is expected that the growth rate of market demand will be within 5%. The demand of downstream product bpa-pc for phenol market will appear in the coming years

acetone. China's MMA, solvent and pharmaceutical industries are the traditional demand fields of acetone. Solvent production enterprises are all over the country, with large and small scale, and the demand is relatively scattered. Since 2005, the substitution of substitutes has been prominent. However, the overall strength of MMA and the pharmaceutical industry is strong. However, due to the unstable production of newly started devices and the inhibition of environmental protection on the development of the pharmaceutical industry, the growth rate of market demand is expected to be within 5%. Bisphenol A is expected to become a new growth point of acetone market demand in the next few years

3. Comparison with foreign countries

compared with the world average level and developed countries, China's bisphenol A and grade a methyl acrylate industries are not developed enough, the consumption of acetone is small, and the production of C6 solvent with acetone is blank in China

IV. industry benefit analysis

1. Industry benefit analysis

in 2005, the international oil price still rose significantly, and the market price oscillated at a high level. In late September, the highest price of WTI oil rose to $1013/ton (converted into dollars/barrel), and the market price of pure benzene in Asia also climbed to $845/ton, with an annual average price of about $803/ton; The average annual quotation of phenol outer disk is about 1030 US dollars/ton (CFR China main port, the same below), and that of acetone outer disk is about 760 US dollars/ton. The price difference with upstream pure benzene is 227 US dollars/ton and -43 US dollars/ton respectively. In 2004, the annual average price of pure benzene in Asia was about US $830/ton; The average annual quotation of phenol outer disk is about 1160 US dollars/ton (CFR China main port, the same below), and that of acetone outer disk is about 860 US dollars/ton. The price difference with upstream pure benzene is 330 US dollars/ton and 30 US dollars/ton respectively. In general, considering reasonable profit margin, the normal price difference between pure benzene and phenol should be within the range of USD/ton. We found that the profit level of phenol/acetone products in 2005 was significantly lower than that in 2004. This is mainly because the centralized expansion of domestic and foreign devices exacerbated the market oscillation and led to price inversion in some periods

2. Analysis of competitiveness with foreign products

(1) pricing strategy

domestic goods are mainly operated according to the market and have price coordination within the industry, so as to exert influence on the domestic market when necessary. In the price system, different levels of ex factory quotations are made based on different customer categories, such as operating companies and manufacturers, different pick-up volumes, and different delivery areas. The period from pricing to shipment of imported products is relatively short, which largely depends on the price level of the domestic market. In case of price inversion (low in the middle and high in the outside), most of the imported products will sacrifice profits, take shipment as the primary purpose, and follow the price in a timely and in place; Ocean going goods have the weakness of long cycle and high pricing risk. However, in recent years, ocean going foreign businessmen have also changed the practice of pre shipment pricing. During the transportation process and even after arriving at the transshipment port, many ships offer and finalize the price according to the domestic market price, which greatly reduces the import risk of importers and improves the flexibility and operability of transactions

(2) in terms of development potential

as mentioned above, the existence of supply-demand gap in the domestic market has made the irreconcilable contradiction between domestic and imported products increasingly prominent. Finally, the phenol anti-dumping case declared the success of the appeal of domestic enterprises with the use of the positive final determination spring testing machine. In order to ensure the success of phenol anti-dumping appeal, domestic enterprises temporarily postponed the application for acetone appeal on the same day. At present, there is speculation in the market that the possibility of acetone applying for anti-dumping is also increasing, especially after many sets of production expansion and new units in the Far East were put into operation, which made the domestic acetone import situation suddenly severe in 2005. In the next few years, once the market price and share competition between imports and domestic products are upgraded, the acetone anti-dumping complaint may be formally put on the agenda. Therefore, from the perspective of development potential, there is little room for the development of imported goods in the domestic market

v. future market forecast

judging from the cyclical trend of the petrochemical industry, the price of phenol and acetone in the domestic market from 2004 to 2005 has reached

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